Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016

The AUD/JPY was able to remain in the positive side of the chart as the USD incurred more losses against the JPY and increased pressure on the cross currency pair. The AUD/JPY pair hit session highs at 79.42 points but eventually reverted back to its previous range of 79.10 points.

While the AUD/JPY lost some of its previous gains, the AUD/USD pair increased further and was able to reach its highest range in November after the Australian retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase as compared to September’s data of 0.4%. However, the increase in this currency pair was not enough to outweigh the decrease in the value of USD/JPY.

If the AUD/JPY manages to go over 79.42 could possible lead to a strong resistance level at the 80.00 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over the zero figure then this could induce more bulls and could possibly cause the pair to go further at 81.52 points. The pair’s support levels is expected to be at 79.00 and could cause a sell-off at the 78.48 and 78.00

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 7, 2016

Generally, the Australian dollar softened on the back of the decision made by the RBA to maintain the Inflation Expectations around 1.5-2.5 percent. The ABS or the official statistical organization of Australia plans to remain the inflation level below that level for a moment but the idea for an increase is also part of the proposition.

The AUD/USD remain intact below the pressured area of 0.7675 but continuously making an attempt to shift on the upper side. The level was dominated by sellers who attempted to lower the price upon the onset of the NY session. The AUD further made a decline and break the 0.7650 but this move lacks momentum and turn back again to the 0.76750 level.

According to the 1-hour chart, the Aussie and greens broke the 50-EMA while the 100-EMA are being tested. The 100-EMA did not recognize the price on top of the 50-EMA. Moving averages preserve a bullish trend within the same timeframe. Current resistance is seen at 0.7675, support settled at 0.7650. MACD grew lesser and implied a weak position of the buyers. RSI indicator landed closely in the overvalued zone, supporting another lower move.

It is forecasted that when bearish investors controlled the market, the price will decrease to 0.7650. A downward movement will begin additional testing of 0.7625 region.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 7, 2016


Recent news about the decision of the High Court had positively affected the pound. According to reports, the approved resolution requires the UK government to obtain a Parliamentary approval upon initiating the British exit from the European Union. This ruling made the sterling to enhance an upward momentum.

The British pound is hovering around its 1-month high two days ago as it continued to regain its previous losses. The bullish investors were blocked at the area of 1.2500 making them to have a hart attempt to break it until the end of the day. Furthermore, during the North American trading hours buyers tried to surpass the present level.

The GBP/USD pair ascended close to the 1.2600 region. The price were able to made an unexpected change around the bearish 200-EMA but shifted again in another direction. The 50 and 100 EMA moderately proceeded upwards according in the 4-hour chart. Resistance is at 1.2600, support comes in at 1.2500. MACD increased and demonstrated strength for the buyers. The RSI approached the overvalued area while preparing for another upward movement.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 7, 2016


The slightly weak result of ADP survey regarding with the lesser jobs in the US economy had resulted for the growth of Unemployment rate, however the Average Hourly Earnings made a little increase. The most recent US data barely impressed the market which resulted for the EURUSD pair to remain intact on its recent highs. Likewise, the greenbacks still situated under the pressured area due to the political issues ongoing within the country.

The pair is viewed to be trading within the region of 1.1100 as resistance amid the EU session on Friday. But the price descended to the area of 1.1079 during the course of the European trading hours. The dipped lacks momentum hence made the prices to bounce back to 1.1100 level. The EURUSD were able to spread out its gains until the NY session.

According to the 4-hour chart, the euro stayed on top of the 200-EMA which established a neutral phase. While the 50 and 100 EMAs proceed to the upper area area seeing the 50-EMA outweigh the 100-EMA upwardly. Current resistance is set at 1.1150, support is spotted within the 1.1100 region. MACD and RSI demonstrated a modest bearish trend. MACD had a decline indicating a softening against the buyer's position. RSI headed southwards reaching the overbought condition.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

This week is the most-awaited week this month as the U.S. Presidential election is near on November 8. The market is highly volatile with everyone waiting for the results after 24 hours of the elections. This event has a big impact on the financial market with the news related to Hilary Clinton’s issue on the investigation of her emails by the FBI but towards the end of the week Hilary is gaining advantage and the market reaction is intensified that will strengthen U.S. dollars.

The market gained back its confidence that Hilary will win after the investigation has been closed getting rid of the obstacle in her campaign. The price rally was brought by this shift in direction with two days left, that market realized that there is a higher chance for her. This surge will linger for this day.

The trend is seen to keep up for the week but there could be changes later on as the investors try to lessen the gap. It is still expected for the market to be highly volatile and pound is sensitive with the major event for the past week. It is expected for a change in the trend of the pair up to the end of the week. There is no major news that would affect the pair.

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation.

Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable.

The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading.

Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

Last Friday, the pair USD/CAD surged but halted with a break lower than the 1.35 resistance that resulted to a shooting star pattern. This gives a negative outlook but this may be reversed with patterns of hammers showing on the bottom part which may revive the chances for buyers.

High volatility is expected in the financial market as everyone is waiting for the results of the U.S. Presidential election. Hence, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines and weigh the risks. It is probable for the price trend to form a candle in the support levels that traders should look out for.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps.

The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim.

Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.

[Luis ForexMart]

Technical Analysis: November 7, 2016

The USD/JPY pair was able to make a small recovery during last Friday’s session after a series of risk-offs which hit the European and American stock market. However, the pair continues to stay in the negative territory and traded within Thursday’s low levels on Friday’s session. The currency pair had a fairly bearish stance after the pair experienced selling pressure above the 103.00 region. Resistance was encountered by USD bulls along the 103.20 trading range where the 200 EMA is also located. The 200 EMA maintained the pressure on the USD/JPY by resisting all possible recovery moves.

The 50 and 100 EMAs for the currency pair decreased quickly, while the 200 EMA maintained its bearish outlook for the session. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be around the 103.50 range, while support levels are expected to come up at the 103.00 region. The technical indicators for the USD/JPY pair are seen to be slightly bearish, with an increase in the MACD indicator showing a weakness in seller positions. Meanwhile, the RSI indicators for the pair is still consolidating within its undervalued regions.

The USD/JPY pair is expected to have its resistance levels at 103.50 if the currency pair would be able to consolidate over the 103.00 region. However, the USD/JPY might again experience a decline if the pair closes the session with a lower value than this particular level.

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate.

This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair.

Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.