Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: March 8, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Swiss Francs continues to rally from 0.9860 as the intraday sentiment maintained in the upper channel as it tested on 1.0342 Resistance level. However for a medium term trend, traders should be careful to top closed to 1.0342 mark. In the lower channel it broke at 1.0008 level that implies a completion of the rally from 0.9860 mark which will be reversed to the downside for 0.9860 region.


It seems that the pair will maintained its medium term lateral pattern. A clear break to the resistance of 1.0342 mark signifies the strength of this level. Contradictingly, the pair will maintain its neutral stance. If the pair continues to fall down, the next support level would from 0.9443 up to 0.9548 zone. A strong break at 1.0342 mark with the target of 38.2% retracement level of 1.8305 then 0.7065 to 1.1359 area.

[Luis ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: March 8, 2017

All eyes were now on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in London. The price of milk would probably decrease by 7 to 9 percent which could weigh against the NZD considering the fact that New Zealand mainly depends on dairy products.

The market sentiment still appeared to be negative on Tuesday. The kiwi came in with a stronger tone near 0.6980. Buyers successfully take the major towards 0.7015 in which the upward momentum slowed down. On one side, sellers dominated and pull the kiwi back to the opening prices and eliminate morning gains.

The NZD/USD preserved a pessimistic trend and move close to 0.6950. The currency pair resumed to develop under the moving averages as displayed in the 4-hour chart. Resistance lies at 0.700, support plunge in 0.6950.

The MACD declined which signaled seller’s strength. RSI take a seat near the undervalued readings, confirming a fresh lower trend.

The New Zealand currency would possibly maintain a well-offered stance in the near-term. We do not preclude the possibility of extension towards 0.6950.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 8, 2017

The British currency stayed below the pressured area amid market concerns regarding the US plans to respond to the actions of North Korea. Moreover, traders were in a mode of wait-and-see about the final decision in Article 50 from the House of Lords.

The sterling stayed in the pressured grounds because of the bid tone within the dollar. The recovery attempt that took place overnight slowed down near 1.2250.

Bears were able to win back the control during the Asian hours and push the major towards a lower point.

The EU sellers continued to work hard for the spot until it reaches 1.2200 touching the region in the post opening of London. Based on the 4-hour chart, the major is located under the moving averages indicating a lower movement. Resistance is seen at 1.2300, support hit 1.2200.

The MACD declined which showed sell signal. RSI was close to the undervalued

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI indicator was near undervalued zone which is in favor of a lower moving.

The near-term depicts a downside. A close below the 1.2200 region would prompt losses through 1.2100.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 8, 2017

The common European currency pay no attention in the downbeat figures of German Factory Orders. The euro stayed below the pressured area as the France’s Presidential elections increasing uncertainties. Meanwhile, the Fed hike would likely weigh against singe currency.

The EUR undertone appeared to be negative on Tuesday. The price had a gradual increase during the night trading and maintained its recovery in the earlier trades.

The buyer was able to test the 1.0600 level in the EU morning session but struggled around the region eventually. Moreover, the upward momentum softened amid late European hours.

The price was removed from the 1.0600 mark and moved lower losing gains of the buyers.

The EUR/USD gapped towards the 100-EMA lower and the 50-EMA was tested as displayed in the 4-hour. The timeframe also presented the neutral 100 and 50-EMAs while 200-EMA persist to progress downwards. Resistance touched 1.0600, support is at 1.0550.

The MACD indicator grew less implying a weak position of the buyers. RSI headed southwards which supports the ongoing downward impetus.

There are assumptions that the EURUSD will resume a downtrend. A daily close under 1.0550 would carry risk to 1.0500.

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.

The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.

For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.

Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.

The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.

However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.

There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 9, 2017

It has been forecasted yesterday that the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report has not much relevance in the past months as the figures remained within the range and did not angle off from the expectations. However, if the price trend drifted significantly, traders should expect volatility in the market similar to how it was yesterday as the pair steadied prior to the release of the report.

The employment report shown 50% greater than expected that would benefit the greenback. This report is a forerunner for the next NFP report to be released on Friday where Yellen has already mentioned that the rate hike in March will push through unless the data is very low. At the same time, this would boost the dollar.

The market is already preparing for the next rate hike where the price has already been set by 100%. This is the main reason why the EUR/USD pair is being pressured and getting lower towards the 1.0500 level. Later on, it is anticipated for the release of the ECB rate and held a press conference which would bring volatility for the pair.

With the rate hike almost set in, bulls should keep mind the associated downside risks. However, the results of NFP and the Federal Reserve’s sentiment following a rate hike would determine if the current trend will be reversed with the rally in the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, bears who are interested in this pair should be patient in monitoring the trend and make sure trades are backed up with stop losses appropriate for the positioned trades.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 9, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollars broke higher than the 1.2200 level after a recent decline as the dollar appreciated in the market yesterday. It has been forecasted early this year that the dollar will strengthen which will most likely affect other currencies and the pound will be heavily influenced.

Although the U.S. dollar couldn’t have a major breakthrough between January and February, it’s underlying strength is already known as traders await for this to fully happen to trade that is beneficial in this condition. The pound has its own concerns that the market watch out for that makes it advisable to sell this pair in time of rebound since this pair has higher chances to suffer compared to other currencies.

Despite the pair being higher than the 1.25 mark, it is advisable to go short for the pair. Recently, the pair was seen to fall to 1.23 and even lower as it dropped to 1.22 on a daily basis which makes it difficult for the pair to recover. There are still chances for the pair to rebound especially when there is a correction for the U.S. dollar, although it is highly that the pair will be immediately sold and maintain its bearish tone.

There is any major news from the U.K. but the U.S. unemployment claims will be released. It seems that the current strengthening of the greenback would continue as the ADP employment report highly met the expectations yesterday. Consequently, it seems that the GBP/USD pair would further decline towards the 1.21 mark.

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017

The Australian dollar surged in the beginning of Wednesday trading session. This was reversed later on as the selling pressure rises. The pair remained in the lows for some time reaching up to 0.7740 mark. It continued to drop from 0.7740 up to 0.7517 levels following the consolidation. If it reaches the 0.7158 level, this marks the completion of the recovery. The lower channel below 0.75 gives a significant support level with the possibility for a rebound or to form a hammer pattern for trading long.

The market now targets the lower range between 0.7144 and 0.7158 as a support area. Looking on the upper channel, if the pair breaks higher than the 0.7361 Resistance level to complete the downtrend. Overall, the pair will persist its bearish tone in terms of recovery.

Price movement lower than the 0.6826 mark can be considered as a form of correction for the pair. However, if it holds a 38.2% Retracement level from 0.9504 then 0.6826 to 0.7849 region, the downtrend from the 1.1079 mark would most likely continue later on. A break lower than the 0.6826 mark would move towards the next target of 0.6008 level. Yet, a clear break at 0.7849 would trigger the uptrend from 0.6826 mark for a medium term rebound instead of a sideway movement.

Generally, the gold market will have an impact to the Aussie. The gold is currently priced at $1200 level and still testing on its support level where it is possible for the metal to align with the currency. Traders should be heedful and monitor the price actions for both markets.