Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016
Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.
The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.
Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980[/SIZE]

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[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016
The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.
Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.
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[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016
The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.

The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.

A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.

Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.

The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.

The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.

USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.

A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.

An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.
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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016
The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.
The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.
RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.
The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.
In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.

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[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 29, 2016
The EUR/GBP pair increased by 62 points after the euro went up and the sterling pound declined during Thursday’s session. The currency pair is presently trading at 0.8425 points. The British pound still continued its decline even after a reported second-quarter increase in UK’s economic growth, whose increase was initially seen to be a positive sign for the currency pair.
The UK economy went up by 0.6% during the second-quarter which was sealed by the controversial Brexit vote, a significant increase compared to the 0.4% during the first quarter of 2016. The British pound plummeted its lowest in two weeks after Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said that PMI surveys would be of importance during BoE’s next policy meeting. He also added that in order for an interest rate cut to happen, there must be a concrete evidence of the UK economy losing its strength.
In July, the Bank of England shocked the financial market when it refused to snip the benchmark for the borrowing cost from its all-time low of 0.5%. However, decision details from last week’s BoE meeting showed that most policymakers will be expected to endorse a yet unknown set of measures in order to help strengthen Britain’s economy.[/SIZE]


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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: August 3, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair traded at 0.8462 points prior to the Bank of England meeting this coming Thursday. Certain factors may weigh in on the value of the said currency pair, such as the Bank of England’s prospective move to cut its base rates below the US rates, which can add to its passive quantitative easing. However, some major banks are speculating that the dollar might be prone to a squeeze following the release of data on Friday.

The EUR has surprisingly done well in spite of the controversy brought about by the Brexit vote three weeks ago. It traded slightly lower than the dollar but is still higher compared to its value last February and has traded higher against the pound, its highest since three years ago. But the IMF has already stressed that Brexit is somewhat more damaging to the EU economy than it is for Great Britain, and the latest ZEW survey has shown reports of confidence going down, with economic sentiment indicators decreasing to its lowest levels since Germany’s financial crisis last 2012.

Some economists believe that this data means that investors are more concerned with Brexit’s effects on the German economy than the financial market’s response to Brexit.
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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"] EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2016
The EUR/USD is trading at a lower value inside yesterday’s range and during the mid-session, which hints at an impending volatility and an indecision among investors. The most recent data on private sector jobs from ADP, which is slated to come out at 12:15 GMT, is being anticipated by investors since the said report will show that there have been 170,000 jobs added by the US economy last July.

The said pair might have a stronger value if the ADP data released will be below the expected estimate. However, if the data comes out higher than expected, then this will drive the EUR lower and increase the value of the US dollar. According to the daily swing chart, the general trend is a downward surge, and even though the EUR/USD pair has increased its trading value since July 25, this has not affected the current trend. The pair is also still trading within the post-Brexit range in spite of its high-pointing momentum levels.

With the pair’s current pricing at 1.1197, the closest resistance point will be the Fibonacci level at 1.1229. A possible trigger for acceleration to the upside might happen if there will be an overtake of the weekly high at 1.1233 and the upward angle at 1.1286. This might also mean another point for a deeper rally at an angle of 1.1356. The EUR/USD will be in a bearish position if there will be a crossover to the weaker side of the angle, which is at 1.1146. This also means that there will be possible targets coming in a support cluster at 1.1092 to 1.1091.
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[SIZE="6"]NZD/USD Technical analysis: August 4 2016

As stated in economic news reports, work compensation in New Zealand speculated for 1.8% but labor price index releases 1.6% compared to their assumption.

The trades for kiwi remained under a negative situation and settled in bearish position yesterday. NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest price at 0.7140. The resistance is deployed at 0.7250 with the support that appeared in the 0.7150 level.

The MACD is plotted in the positive signal. The histogram narrowed down and reduced the strength of the buyer. RSI has been in the neutral territory. The oscillator gradually declined

Moving average cross-over is presented in the 4-hour chart which indicated the EMAs 50,100 and 200 in an upward direction.

Analysts estimates that the market would shift to a bearish tone thus the seller's target comes in at 0.7050.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 8, 2016
The USD/CAD pair experienced an upsurge at 1.3175 after employment data in Canada disheartened investors, while US jobs data went up at an impressive rate. The week’s forecast for the greenback showed a continued surge for the currency pair. According to Statistic Canada’s labour force survey, the market lost a total of 31,200 in jobs last July, the biggest one-month drop in the last five years. Another report also showed Canada’s international trade deficit, which reached up to $3.6 billion last June.
The said data caused the CAD to go even lower against the greenback, which caused a reversal of a short-term moderate strength. The Canadian economy was deprived of one of the most crucial support in the past years because of the stagnant consumer demand during the last two months. This is while the other sources of growth, like energy patch, business investment, and manufacturing continue its struggle.
Analysts are suggesting that a dip in the Q2 GDP is likely to happen, mainly because of the losses incurred after the Alberta wildfires. Short-term interest differentials in the USD/CAD pair will remain in the USD’s favor due to a divergence in the general growth trends. The CAD also weakens during the latter part of the year, and seasonal considerations are being foreseen for the said pair. [/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"] Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 9, 2016
The AUD/USD pair traded lower after disappointments brought about by Chinese trade numbers. The AUD is currently trading at 0.7609, which is higher than its anticipated trading range. The currency did not seem to be affected by plummeting Chinese exports which created hopes for stimuli from the PBOC. The USD eased by a small amount this week after the release of jobs data. Traders are anticipating the rate decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week and a statement from the RBA head following this week’s rate decision release.

The USD closed Friday’s session with nearly 0.5% in terms of gains while the US 10-year treasury yields went up by 10 basis points to hit 1.59%. The USD traded at 96.11 by Monday morning, putting pressure on the Australian dollar after coming close enough to a multi-month high just before the release of payroll reports.

China’s total export value dipped by 6.25%, decreasing from $192.01 billion to $180.3 billion in a span of just one month. Exports during the first half of the year also went down by 2.1% every year. This significant decrease in Chinese export numbers show that a weak yuan won’t necessarily become an advantage on the part of exporters, particularly in the textile industry, whose export reports showed a decline at 3.7% during the first half of every year.

The PBOC surprised financial markets after devaluing the yuan by decreasing its daily reference rate at 1.87% against the USD. It also bolstered its slow economy by front-lining its stimulus program, with banks allowing lending of up to billions of dollars to various business in order to maintain cash flow in the economy.
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[SIZE="5"]GBP/USD Technical Analysis : August 9, 2016
After the cut rate handed by the BoE so as to avert the unfavorable impact brought by Brexit, the sterling pound remained closed at Friday.

The GBP/USD continued to perform a short-term bearish pattern. The price of the pair is placed between 1.3000 and 1.3100 levels. Following the support stands at 1.2900 while the resistance is established at 1.2900.

The momentum indicators, MACD and RSI disposed a sell signal which changed the indicators slightly on Friday.

The trading instrument continuously move below the 50,100 and 200 EMAs as presented in the 4-hour chart.

The GBP/USD is expected to mark a downward trend towards 1.2900 since the pair's outlook would gain a temporary growth close to 1.3175 at which the 50 and 100 EMAs exists.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 12, 2016
The USD/JPY pair weakened further following the release of the Jobless Claims Report, with traders clamoring for a response from the Bank of Japan. Should the weak state of the pair continue, then the BoJ will have to release a statement sooner or later.

Thursday’s session showed a remarkably low volatility in the market which only became active after the release of the US Jobless Claims Report. A positive US labor data strengthened the USD, causing traders to push prices upward. The instrument rallied at 101.40 and broke the level, with the resistance coming in at 102.50 and support levels at 101.40. The MACD is currently at the center level, and a histogram entry at the positive side will mean an increase in buyers’ strength. On the other hand, sellers will regain its control of the market should the MACD go over the negative side. The RSI indicator is projected to increase after going over the oversold area.

The 50 and 100 EMAs were broken by prices in the 1-hour chart, after which the EMA pairs further increased its strength. The 200-EMA now acts as a barrier for the USD/JPY pair, with the moving averages going down within the said time frame. The USD/JPY will possibly move to test the next bullish target at 102.00, along the area of the 200-day moving average.[/SIZE]

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[SIZE="5"] NZD/USD Technical Analysis: August 12 2016
Subsequent to the decision of the RBNZ to implement an interest cut rate of 0.25%, the New Zealand's currency increased on its one-month high. Upon arriving at its highest level, the NZD/USD have regressed towards a downward state. The mark price directed from 0.7335 to 0.7225. The resistance stands at 0.7250, the support can be seen at the level of 0.7150.

As shown in the histogram, MACD sloped move towards a lower point and the pair signalled a seller's strength. Furthermore, the fluctuated in the overbought position.

The price of the pair is heading to 50-EMA as indicated in the 1 hour chart . The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs ascended to the top.

Analysts viewed the pair to be bearish and remained to be under-pressure. Trader's stop is situated at the 0.7150 region. [/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 16, 2016
The NZD/USD pair weakened its stance and traded down at 0.7177, although this is still a relatively strong value compared to its counterparts. Investors are taking into consideration China’s mixed signals and the lack of stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. The RBA and RBNZ statements on its rate decisions are making investors and traders uneasy. The retail sales volume rose by 2.3% last June, which is the biggest increase in the last nine years. This is in comparison with a 1% increase last year.

According to Statistics New Zealand, the increase was mainly caused by surges in vehicle sales, personal and pharmaceutical products, and more people spending on eating and drinking out. The retail sales’ total value rose from 2.2% last quarter to almost $20 billion. According to Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod, consumers are benefiting from low inflation and interest rates, which are putting money back in domestic pockets. A strengthened tourist season and strong migration rates are also helping in the surge in spending figures.

Zespri has also stated that it has already improved its pre-export checking procedures, which has already been approved by the MPI, who is currently advising China with regards to kiwifruit exports. Kiwifruit sales has also exceeded last year’s total volume sales, with another 7 million kiwifruit trays in line for export this coming season.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="6"]Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: August 17, 2016

The AUD/USD pair closed down Tuesday’s session on a slightly higher level, after the trading range widened following traders’ reactions to several financial events. The AUD was previously subject to pressure after a statement from RBA can possibly mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be considering another interest rate cut. However, the USD went down following dovish comments from Fed, increasing the overall value of the Aussie.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the Wage Price Index, and economists are expecting the quarterly report to be at 0.5%. However, union members are expecting a weaker range for the Wage Price Index, which can lead to volatility after its release. The Fed will also be releasing its July meeting minutes and traders will be anticipating the next scheduled rate cut.

The daily swing chart is showing a generally upward trend, although momentum has a possibility of going downward. Based on the pair’s current pricing at .7690, the AUD/USD pair’s direction will likely be determined by the reaction of traders to the .7695 short-term pivot. An increase in selling pressure is possible should there be a downward bias on a sustained move under .7635, while an upward bias will develop if there is a sustained move over .7755.[/SIZE]

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