Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: September 30, 2016

The GBP/USD pair continued to sway between 1.2950 and 1.3050 with no definite direction. This indefinite stance of the GBP/USD was mainly caused by an expected break on both sides by traders but has not since occurred. However, the value of the currency seemed to be controlled by EUR/GBP cash flows than any other fundamental factors.

The issues surrounding Deutsche Bank also added uncertainties to the GBP/USD pair’s stance. Deutsche Bank’s recent issues caused stock markets to have a risk-off sentiment and caused the S&P and other technical indexes to drop in value. Moreover, this has caused the pound to decrease its support levels at 1.2950 during the last trading session. Traders should take extra precautions as this might cause major shifts in the financial market and may also cause the USD to increase its value in general.

Speculators are expecting added volatility to the market due to the London fix, as well as a major news announcement from the UK government which is scheduled to be released today.

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 30 2016

Today has been in favor for EUR/GBP instead to EUR/USD. Traders have been confused to the movements made by Euro but it'll be much clearer if they already inferred the factors that cause such complicated actions. Moreover, major news within the U.S and Euro does not have make any impact to the pair rather than it's about the heavy transactions flow at the end of the month by which the euro is associated to.

Many factors are to be considered in the end flows such as the membership fee of the UK to EU that are required to be paid every end of the month or depending on the level of the liquidity and volatility in the market. Another driving force is the activity of euro yesterday since there are large number of EUR buying and selling.

The euro and greenback attempted to bid within the upper side where it attained a high resistance around 1.1250, however, the news regarding the Deutsche bank's problem caused the pair to establish a downward slope.

Due to this event, the market got panic because there is a tendency for a risk appetite wherein brings positive strength for the USD. The pair's trading range for today intersects the 1.1180 and 1.1250, seeing that the euro have suffered from a high and low positions brought by the end month flows.

It is important for the traders to be cautious about the effects that the bank company would bear. It is safer to execute your trades within the extreme ranges.

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 30, 2016

Recovery of Aussie could occur even before the next policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia this 4th of October. The AUD/JPY pair bounced back to its key support level as it is expected for Australia’s Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe to keep the benchmark of interest rate as low as 1.50%.

The pair may continue to retrace this season because of the low-yielding market that is in advantage for the Australian dollar. The support level is at 75.80 with a retracement of 23.6% and an expansion of 38.2% to 76.10. Hence, it is possible for a closing price higher that 77.90 with 38.2 retracement for a September high at 79.12. However, the 100-day SMA showed at 77.92 curbs the value of Aussie throughout the summer season.

Traders should lookout for a bearish trend that may happen again since 2014, when the short to medium-term falls short to reach the September high at 79.12.

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: September 30 2016

The dollar had substantiate after the remarks of Yellen regarding the advantages in supporting the central bank in purchasing stocks. The covenant OPEC for the oil price reduction also helped the economy to further improve from the latest plunge.

AUDUSD settled a bullish tone yesterday. While buyers managed to drove a higher price at 0.7700 where the pair had already broke the level. Nonetheless, the Aussie and U.S dollar did not sustain its position for long and return to a lower price at 0.7650.

The pair make a firm position over the moving averages as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossover the 200-EMA. Resistance is hovering at 0.7700, support achieved the 0.7650 level.

MACD presented the same result and reserved the strength for the sellers. RSI settled in a neutral position.

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 30 2016

The pound demonstrated a weaker position yesterday even though the UK data presented positive results as well as Yellen pronounced her support to dollar.

The daily high of the pound is set at 1.3050 that enabled for the currency to get back to its previous standing. But the pair slowly fell to the 1.3000 level. Moreover, the moving averages are descending while the pound had a conflict in moving over the 50-EMA. Resistance met the 1.3100 level, support occupied the 1.3000 region. MACD managed to reach the middle point. If the indicator fell in the negative zone, the strength of the seller will increase and if attained a positive domain, it is the buyers who holds the control on top of the stock exchange. RSI also get down in a neutral area.

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: September 30, 2016

Chinese Yuan trades lower than USD when it comes to offshore trading because of the incoming holiday period in China. Thus, it is expected for the Yuan rates to increase both onshore and offshore interest rates.

A Morning star pattern showed with the support at 6.6500 trades at a short-term range between the support level at 6.6700 and resistance at 6.6860. The 50-day average continue to sustain the prices movement.

A move lower than 6.6700 is more likely to proceed lower at 6.6500 then to 6.6224 which circumstantially shows a long term trend going upward. The bullish trend could prolong when a break is seen above resistance at 6.6860 level or even higher than 6.7 handle.

[Luis ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: October 3, 2016

The AUD/ USD pair closed the last trading session in the higher trading range but was still unable to go beyond the 0.7700 range, with selling interest rates going stronger as compared to last week. The currency pair has now settled between the 0.7450 - 0.7700 trading range. The pair temporarily fell below 0.7600 last Friday but was able to recover almost immediately due to Fibonacci support.

The volume of the Asian trading session for this week is expected to be somewhat limited due to China’s golden week. The daily charts are still exhibiting an upward trend, with prices still above the 20 SMA. Momentum levels are now consolidated above the 100 level and RSI indicators are seen to go beyond 56.

The 4-hour chart now has a limited upward trend, especially since prices are having difficulty exceeding above the 20 SMA. On the other hand, other technical indicators are losing their momentum and is expected to go south. Monday’s session might be marked by a slight downward extension at the 0.7600 level.
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[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: October 3, 2016

The USD/CAD pair continued to trade within the broad range but market players are expecting the currency pair to be on the bullish side. The USD/CAD has proved to be one of the most volatile currency pairs with its 2-way movement but still in the wider trading range between 1.3050 and 1.3280. The release of the retail sales data last Friday turned out to be bad for the market, causing the CAD to decrease earlier this week. However, the bullish stance of the pair was still not able to break through the 1.3280 trading range.

The CAD then bounced back after the release of the OPEC statement, where oil producers have agreed to cut down oil production in order to increase oil prices. The currency pair then decreased in value. But Canada’s GDP data came out way above the expectations of investors, increasing the USD/CAD’s value but not enough to break through the bottom range, therefore settling within the neutral territory.

For this week, investors are awaiting the release of the Canadian employment report as well as the NFP report which is both slated to come out this Friday. Market players are expecting increased volatility once the mentioned economic data are released, together with the strengthening of the US economy due to an impending rate hike and the weakening of the Canadian economy due to the OPEC report.

[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: October 3, 2016

The USD/JPY pair had a double-sided trading session on Friday after investors had split reactions to reports of an alleged settlement between the US Department of Justice and banking firm Deutsche Bank. The currency pair finished the last trading session at 101.318 points, going up by +0.29% or 0.288 points, with the USD finishing higher against the Japanese yen.

The BoJ’s decision on its monetary policy is now settled, and investors are now shifting their focus on investor sentiment when it comes to the general direction of the market. Analysts are expecting this particular trend to continue up until Monday’s session especially due to lack of important economic data to be released this week and because of limited speculations prior to the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report this coming Friday.

Traders are now becoming particularly conscious with various economic events and news as they await the next announcement from Bank of Japan. The direction of the USD/JPY was influenced by the US Presidential Debate last week, the Deutsche Bank issue, and the statement released by the OPEC. For this week, speculators are expecting that the USD/JPY would most likely be influenced by the release of the US stock indices and the US jobs report which is set for the end of the week.
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[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 3 2016

The declaration proclaimed by the OPEC regarding the reduction of oil cause the Japanese currency to deplete. While the China official PMI provided a safe harbor for the yen. The bearish outlook persist to be unchanged. JPY lose its current profits last 30th of September but still it procured the final price against the USD. A bullish pattern run down the 101.70 making the price to bounce off to the 101.40 region.

USDJPY passed through the 100-EMA and tested the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. But buyers had a decline around the 200-EMA resulting for a rollback in prices. Current resistance hit the 101.40, support meet the 100.40 region. MACD stayed over the same position and signaled strength for the buyers. RSI vacillates around the overbought zone.