Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 22, 2016
The British pound is holding its breath at 1.4683 for the release of the last set of polls leading to the EU referendum tomorrow. Recent surveys have been leaning towards remaining in the EU, gaining the GBP buying interest still evident today.
GBP/USD reached 1.4715 today but fell back to 1.46 cents due to the still-looming uncertainty. A neutral outlook is still in position until it sustains the 1.47 line. Its US counterpart is unlikely to firm due to a dovish Yellen and a fading interest hike in July.
The first support occurs at 1.4634 and 1.4590 while first resistance is at 1.4703 and 1.4766. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.

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[SIZE="5"]Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016
EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.
Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.
On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.
The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.
EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. [/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016
GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.

According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.

In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.

Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.

The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.

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[Luis ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016
Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"] [B]Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016[/B]
After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.

A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]Fundamental analysis: July 12, 2016

The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.

The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.

British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"] AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2016
AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.
The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.
The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.

The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.[/SIZE]

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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"][B]Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016[/B]
The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.
EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.
After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery. [/SIZE]

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[SIZE="5"][B]Fundamental Analysis: July 14 2016
[/B]The Bank of Canada opted to maintain interest rates during their most recent closed-door meeting with the currency board and bank directors and eventually the rate of the Canadian Dollar moved higher yesterday. The USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher prices most of the trading session but the invested capital gains immediately fluctuate down to 1.2934 close to 1.2976, falling to 0.0064 or -0.49%. Since midsummer the BoC continued to retain its appropriate benchmark with a rate of 0.50%.
According to the central bank, the financial valuation of the BoC would likely have an economic growth, considering that it has increased by 2.4% during the first quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 1% by the second quarter. The assessment is inferred through the volatility of the capital flows, household consumption and the massive wildfire that ravage the Canada's region.
The central bank also anticipates the expansion of the Canada's economy by 1.3% up to 3.5% during the months of July to September. The BoC mentioned also their expectation of the price stability of oil prices for the rest of this year.
One of the problems emerged in Canada is the overall financial vulnerabilities as it resulted to a lower rates and experienced an adverse shock. Other news releases said that a 4% price fall in crude oil will restrain the weakening of the USD/CAD pair.
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[Luis ForexMart]

[SIZE="5"]USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 18, 2016
The USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2971 and closed at 0.56% after the USD was restored and pressure was put on the market as international events shook traders during last Friday’s session. On Thursday, US numbers looked promising, as inflation rates went up after the PPI went over its estimated percentage of 0.3%, climbing up to 0.5%, the highest monthly gain since May 2015.

The Core PPI also exceeded expectations, gaining 0.4% after an initial estimate of 0.1%. However, Unemployment Claims remained stagnant at 254 thousand, way below the expected rate of 263 thousand. The consumer price index report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the CPI by 0.2% for June, while currency speculators renewed their net long position on the USD following a significant upsurge since June, after positive US economic data caused the currency to experience an increase.

The USD’s net long position increased after the week’s end on July 12, hitting $8.01 billion after last week’s $4.18 billion. US retail sales also picked up and went higher than expected, which shows how the economy went up during the second quarter of the year.
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[SIZE="6"]EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2016

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased with an exchange rate of 1.0874 but experienced to have a reverse path today and formed a negative candle pattern with a price rate of 1.1067 . The pair continued to strike around within the consolidation period and it snap back in the bottom of 1.10 level and 1.12 level at the top. Short-term market rallies will continue to sell and offer various opportunities that support short-term charts.
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[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 21, 2016
The USD gained an increase versus the CAD after investors paid more attention to a possible hike in US interest rates rather than a recovery in oil prices. The USD/CAD pair went up by 0.0036 or +0.28% at 1.3060.

On Tuesday, the USD/CAD sustained its support from traders after the release of a positive US housing starts data, causing a drastic change in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by at least 50%, after previous indicators showed only a 20% hike.

The USD was previously backed up by healthy June data of US Non-Farm Payrolls and an unexpected upsurge in retail sales data. On the other hand, the CAD was previously supported by the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates while rallying for a stronger and more stable economic status.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016
The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.

Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.

The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.

Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.

In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.

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[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016
The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.

The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.

The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.


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