Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 29, 2016

The Japanese Yen decreased its value during Wednesday’s trading session, causing the USD/JPY pair to increase its value by up to 0.257 points or +0.26% to close at 100.67 points. The increased demand for commodity currencies and stocks was caused by a report that OPEC had already consented to decreasing its overall output, which last occurred in 2008. Reliable sources from OPEC are saying that the organization would be reducing its oil outputs to 32.5 million barrels daily from its current output of 33.24 million barrels a day.

The USD started strengthening earlier during the session after a recovery of European equity markets increased the risk appetites of investors which then removed their focus from the safe haven currency. The USD/JPY benefitted from the wide-range risk-on sentiment after the statement from OPEC increased activity in the US stock market.

The US market surged primarily due to statements from Fed and a highly durable US goods report. Core Durable Goods Orders data decreased by 0.4% in August, going way below the expected reading of 0.5% and even lower than the expected July reading of 1.3%. However, DGO data was slightly better than the estimate of -1 and went significantly lower than July’s prediction of 3.6%.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: September 29 2016

As mentioned in the yesterday's forecast, the USDCAD cannot overcome the 1.3240 in spite of its effort. It is expected that the pair would suffer from indecision and reverse movement under this level while the stock exchange anticipates the latter price actions.

Looking forward for the next direction, came in big announcement from Algiers. The overall market did not foresee any impact beforehand because the participants already departed from the meeting and many thought that the session were like consultation rather than finalizing a decision. However, producers released their rulings regarding the cessation of the national output because they would focus more in the oil prices that have seen collapsing.

This resolution would be a great help for the economy of Canada, considering that the price of crude oil has a significant relation to their area of production as well as to the CAD per se. In spite of the positive news regarding oil, the pair is kept in the bullish position. This issue is difficult to recede as some of the experts had said. They also believe that the pair would still feel the effect for a few more weeks by which the economy still weakens as well as the Canadian dollar while the USD CAD will take a bullish trend.

Today, the pair is speculated to obtain the support within the 1.3000-1.3040 zones. The resistance seen in the upper region and lied over the 1.3150.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 29, 2016

Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD is in tranquil both in the Asian and European market while everyone waits for what is gonna happen next regarding speeches from Fed and European Central Bank. Despite the a big deal is about is expire that limited the price movement.

At 1.3000 the whole day yesterday had a bullish market and is forecasted to continue this day. The speeches did not give any concrete changes regarding monetary policies and still reticent with their decisions. The pair moved between 20 pips fluctuating higher or lower than 1.3000.

There is no major news in UK that is expected except the sudden report regarding oil producers meeting in Algiers. The goal is to reduce oil production to stabilise it and prevent from further downfall. This was unexpected that brought riskier assets causing Yen to ebb as well as Gold.

The pair moved as high as 1.3060 in bid and a high demand in selling that dropped down the prices to 1.3021.The bullish market will continue today as well as the support to 1.3000 and expected upside target of 1.3100 to 1.3160. Prices will not be affected as much and will depend more on technical and overall outflow in the market.
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: September 29, 2016

BOE deputy Shafik’s dovish statements has caused the sterling pound to be weighed down, after Shafik stated that the central bank requires more economic stimulus, and the bank is willing to widen its asset purchase program if ever the need arises.

The technical trend for the currency pair is mainly bearish since a lot of sellers are holding fast to their current positions. The GBP/USD exhibited volatile and low trading points during Wednesday’s session, with the price staying within the 1.3000 range for buyers. The pair’s growth was somewhat hindered by a bearish 50 EMA, while the 50, 100, and 200 EMA are still steadily declining. Resistance levels are currently at 1.3000 while support levels are at 1.2900.

MACD levels are presently in the negative side, with MACD’s growth indicative of a weakening of sellers’ positions. Meanwhile, RSI levels are expected to go within the overbought range. The general outlook for the currency pair is bearish, with an expected drop towards the 1.2950 range. However, speculators are also expecting an upsurge to the 1.3100 trading range.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 29, 2016

The EUR/USD pair had an ambiguous stance during Wednesday’s trading session as investors and traders are waiting for statements coming from the European Central Bank and and the Federal Reserve. However, none of the two central banks are expected to release new modifications, which leaves the EUR/USD pair at a lower value than the previous trading sessions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has already stated that there is no definite period as to when the Federal Reserve would be increasing its interest rates. On the other hand, ECB Chair Mario Draghi has stated that the central bank’s negative rates are not the ones to be blamed for problems in the European banking sector.

The Durable Goods Orders data came out without much activity, even falling below the expected data release in August. The DGO report has also showed that capital equipment shipments had already decreased in value four months in a row, and investors are expecting that this will lead to a drop in Q3 GDP rates.

In general, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling to make progress during this week. The pair’s 4-hour chart indicates that its value has been unable to go above its moving averages. Momentum levels are expected to go south and below the 100 level. Meanwhile, RSI indicators are in the 47-point range and is leaning towards the negative. Selling interest are now below 1.1190 and this could make the currency pair go even lower at 1.1120 during the next trading sessions.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: September 29 2016

After a positive performance made by the AUDUSD, the pair is currently in the period of consolidation together with the formation of the inside bar pattern. If the pair ended with the same price range until the closing trades, it will indicate a resistance pointing at 0.7695. Support is also based upon the result of the low direction held yesterday which is seen in the 0.7611.


The inside bar measured 84 pips by which traders are allowed to use for a bearish or bullish plan. The bullish target is close within the 0.7779 region while the bearish can be spotted alongside the 0.7527. Through employing the half of the range it is possible for the traders to reach a 1:2 ratio of risk and reward if there is a failed break occurred. In addition to it, tradesman should be cautious with Aussie and US dollar because consolidation is still possible to persist.


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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: September 29 2016

Today, Euro were able to gain a higher position compared with the sterling pound. This movement passed through the swing high in the month of July. Prices are still way up higher for the seventh time consecutively since 2013.


The closing price over the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement is beyond the 0.8762 region and reached a 61.8% level in the point of 0.8884. A reversal in the price actions settled down in the 0.8627-41 area or 38.2% of the Fib created a way in retesting an expansion of 23.6% or 0.8491. The unavailability of bearish signal pattern indicated a perilous direction.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: September 29, 2016

The USD/CHF pair is in a range bound trading. There is no expected changes for the levels to break where both resistance and support remains the same. This does not mean lack of activity but prices at steady. However, this makes range trading to be pointless when traders would grab the prices quickly of the consistency in support and resistance. This makes the environment toilsome to avoid forced trading.

Traders should not be complacent with patterns showing consistency. It is better to weigh the risk-reward ratio as this would still fluctuate later on.There is a risk that one trader to wipe out all the smaller profits. Also the current range-bound condition may create a false level of confidence in traders.

The resistance zone becomes more rigid as after retracement of 61.8% from .9948 Fibonacci level creating a double layer. This trend was last seen on the later part of July. hence, a short term level of resistance is beneficial to be used as a n auxiliary range within the wider long-term range.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 30, 2016

The EUR decreased its value after Germany’s Unemployment Change report turned out to be far weaker than what traders and investors had expected. Meanwhile, the USD strengthened slightly after hints that the Fed might possibly implement an interest rate hike before the year ends.

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile had its support levels at 1.1200 points and had a lackluster performance during Thursday’s trading session. The currency pair’s price levels remained inactive at the 1.1200 - 1.1230 during the London trading session. The 50, 100, and 200 moving averages remained on neutral territory, with resistance levels at 1.1250 and support levels currently at 1.1200.

The MACD is currently at the center of the range. If the MACD returns to negative territory, then this will signal a strengthening of sellers, while a move into the positive territory is an indicator of a possible takeover of buyers in the financial market. The currency pair’s RSI levels remain at the neutral range.

Should sellers be able to force down pricing levels below the 1.1200 range, then the currency value of the EUR/USD is expected to go up at 1.1150. However, it is also highly possible that this would even go as far as the 1.1250 trading range.

Julianne - Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: September 30, 2016

The USD/CAD pair finished last trading session with its resistance levels resting at 1.3120 points and support levels at 1.3060 points, with the currency pair merely consolidating during the rest of the trading session since there was no major event that came from Canada yesterday. However, the GDP output for Canada will be released today, and this is expected to create a significant insight with regards to the performance of the Canadian economy. Canada’s economy has been steadily weakening during the past few months, although recent data from the nation has not yet been reflecting these changes.

However, the Bank of Canada has been hinting at this particular weakening in their economy, as well as the effect of lowering oil prices on the nation’s economic output and speculators are saying that this might ultimately lead to the BOC cutting back on its interest rates.

The USD/CAD continues to be bullish, mainly because of the current state of the Canadian economy. The USD strengthened as Deutsche Bank’s issues were brought up during the US session which caused the USD to rally at 1.3180 points and is now currently at 1.3153. Support levels are at 1.3060 while resistances are within the range of 1.3200 and 1.3255 points.